FORECASTING THE CONSEQUENCES OF A MUDFLOW TAKING INTO ACCOUNT THE CHARACTERISTICS OF THE WATER BODY

In the spring of 2010 in the Almaty region, in 2014 in the Karaganda region, and in early 2024 in the northern regions of Kazakhstan, devastating floods occurred, accompanied by human casualties and significant damage. These events emphasized the need to create effective monitoring systems for hydraulic structures.

Modern systems for monitoring the hydrological situation on water bodies allow early detection of potential threats to humans and the environment. The main goal of monitoring is to provide accurate data necessary for forecasting emergency situations. Designing such systems includes the development and analysis of mathematical models capable of calculating in real time the volume of water that a water body can hold, as well as predicting the moment of its filling and the threat of a dam break. The use of such systems facilitates the adoption of prompt measures to ensure environmental safety.

This paper presents a forecasting system capable of assessing the consequences of mudflows. The developed system is based on mathematical modeling methods. Unlike analogues, the proposed model takes into account both the parameters of the reservoir and the features of the river bed.

To implement the system in practice, software was created in Python. The experiments showed that the model reliably reflects real conditions and can be successfully applied in various scenarios